Understand the number before the decision
A refused delivery still has a cost
Collected-order contribution equals collection minus product cost, outbound shipping, packaging, collection fees and acquisition. A refused order produces no revenue or collection fee, but still incurs outbound and return shipping, packaging, acquisition and any unrecovered product cost.
The average includes every dispatched parcel
The example collects 100, with product cost 40, outbound shipping 8, packaging 2, fees 3% plus 0.30 and acquisition 5. A collected order contributes 41.70. Return shipping of 6 and 90% cost recovery give a refused-order contribution of −25. With 20% refusals, expected contribution is 28.36 per dispatch; the modeled loss threshold is about 62.52%.
Use a completed order cohort
Do not classify new orders still awaiting delivery as refusals. This model starts at dispatch and excludes cancellations before shipment. Refunds after a paid delivery belong in the separate returns calculator because revenue and fee treatment differ.
What is included?
Refusal calculations use dispatched orders; refund calculations use paid orders. Inventory and fee recovery values are your own assumptions. Cash-cycle estimates cover inventory cost only under steady activity. The explanations above identify formulas and exclusions. Currency is a label without conversion; unentered fixed costs and taxes are excluded.